Sassuolo
CagliariMAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
AI Prediction
Sassuolo
2-1
Match Summary
Sassuolo enters this match as the favorite, boasting a better league standing, superior overall and recent form, and the advantage of playing at home. Cagliari's struggles, particularly away from home, make this a challenging fixture for them.
Key Factors
- ●Sassuolo's home advantage and slightly better attacking output.
- ●Cagliari's poor away form and recent run of results (3 losses, 2 draws in last 5).
- ●Sassuolo's higher league position (10th vs 15th).
Upset Potential
While Sassuolo is favored, their inconsistent home record and Cagliari's tendency to secure draws away from home mean there is a moderate upset potential, primarily in the form of a draw rather than an outright Cagliari win.
Goal Markets
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 Goals
BTTS
Yes
Total Goals
3 Goals
Sassuolo's home matches average 2.53 total goals (1.1 for, 1.4 against), while Cagliari's away matches average 2.6 total goals (1.0 for, 1.6 against). Both teams have shown a tendency to score and concede, with Sassuolo scoring in 60% of home games and conceding in 80%, and Cagliari scoring in 66.7% of away games and conceding in 93.3%. This suggests a high likelihood of both teams finding the net (BTTS: Yes). Given the predicted score of 2-1, the total goals would be 3, leading to a lean towards Over 2.5 Goals.
Value Bets
The odds for a Sassuolo win (1.96) imply a probability of 51.02%. Based on Sassuolo's stronger league position, better overall and recent form, and home advantage against a struggling away side, our model estimates their win probability to be around 58%, offering a positive edge of 6.98%.
Statistical Breakdown
Home Win Rate
Sassuolo has a 40% win rate at home (6 wins in 15 games).
Away Loss Rate
Cagliari has a 46.7% loss rate away from home (7 losses in 15 games).
Goal Timing Cagliari
Cagliari scores 25.81% of their goals in minutes 31-45, 61-75, and 76-90, and concedes 26.19% of goals in the last 15 minutes (76-90).
Goal Timing Sassuolo
Sassuolo scores 27.03% of their goals between minutes 61-75 and concedes 25.64% of goals in the first 15 minutes.
Average Goals Cagliari Away
Cagliari averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.6 goals conceded per away game.
Average Goals Sassuolo Home
Sassuolo averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded per home game.
Frequently Asked Questions
Form Guide
Betting Insight
Market Sentiment
Betting sentiment is likely to lean towards a Sassuolo victory, given their stronger position and Cagliari's struggles.
Sharp Money
No specific data available to indicate sharp money movements.
Line Movement
No specific data available to indicate line movements since opening odds.
Risk Assessment
Risk Score
- !Sassuolo's home form is not overwhelmingly dominant (6 wins, 7 losses in 15 games), indicating potential for an upset or draw.
- !Cagliari has managed 5 draws in 15 away games, suggesting they can be resilient and difficult to break down.
- !The goal market (Over/Under 2.5) is borderline based on average goals per game, adding uncertainty to goal-related bets.
Model Confidence
70%
Data quality: The data provided is comprehensive for team statistics, league standings, and current odds, allowing for a robust statistical analysis.
- - Absence of head-to-head statistics between the two teams.
- - Lack of specific injury reports for key players.
- - No direct player performance metrics or recent news updates.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.