Le Havre
AuxerreStade Océane
AI Prediction
Le Havre
1-0
Match Summary
This is a crucial Ligue 1 relegation battle between 14th-placed Le Havre and 16th-placed Auxerre. Le Havre holds a significant home advantage, while Auxerre has one of the worst away records in the league. Expect a tight, low-scoring encounter.
Key Factors
- ●Le Havre's solid home defense and relatively better home record.
- ●Auxerre's abysmal away form and struggle to score goals on the road.
- ●Both teams' strong tendency for matches with Under 2.5 goals.
- ●The high stakes of a relegation six-pointer.
Upset Potential
The upset potential is low for an Auxerre away win given their form, but a draw is a plausible outcome, especially considering Le Havre's propensity for home draws and the cautious nature of relegation matches.
Goal Markets
Over/Under 2.5
Under 2.5 Goals
BTTS
No
Total Goals
1-2 goals
Both teams exhibit a strong tendency for low-scoring matches. Le Havre has seen Under 2.5 goals in 26 out of 27 total matches (96.3%), and Auxerre in 23 out of 27 total matches (85.2%). Le Havre averages 1.07 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded at home, while Auxerre averages 0.69 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded away. Auxerre has failed to score in 8 of their 13 away games, and Le Havre has kept 4 clean sheets at home. Therefore, a low-scoring game with 'Both Teams To Score - No' is highly anticipated.
Value Bets
Le Havre's home performance (5 wins, 6 draws, 3 losses in 14 games) is considerably better than Auxerre's away performance (1 win, 4 draws, 8 losses in 13 games). Our model estimates Le Havre's win probability at 50%, which offers a positive edge of 6.52% against the implied probability of 43.48% from the given odds of 2.3.
Statistical Breakdown
Analysis
Le Havre's home performance (1.5 points per game, 1.07 goals for per game, 0.86 goals against per game) is significantly better than their overall league average. In contrast, Auxerre's away performance (0.54 points per game, 0.69 goals for per game, 1.62 goals against per game) is a major weakness. Both teams are among the lowest scorers in the league, with Le Havre averaging 0.8 goals per game and Auxerre also 0.8 goals per game overall. A striking statistic is that Le Havre has gone under 2.5 goals in 96.3% of their matches, and Auxerre in 85.2%, strongly indicating a low-scoring affair. Auxerre has failed to score in 61.5% of their away matches.
Frequently Asked Questions
Form Guide
Betting Insight
Market Sentiment
No external betting sentiment data was provided.
Sharp Money
No sharp money data was provided.
Line Movement
No line movement data was provided.
Risk Assessment
Risk Score
- !Both teams are in poor overall form, which can lead to unpredictable performances.
- !The high stakes of a relegation battle can result in a cautious, low-scoring affair that could easily end in a draw.
- !Le Havre has a high home draw rate (6 out of 14 matches).
Model Confidence
70%
Data quality: The provided data is comprehensive for team statistics and league standings, offering a good basis for analysis.
- - Lack of head-to-head records between the two teams.
- - Absence of injury reports, which can significantly impact match outcomes.
- - No detailed player performance metrics or expected goals (xG) data.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.