Cremonese
BolognaStadio Giovanni Zini
AI Prediction
Bologna
0-2
Match Summary
Bologna enters this match as strong favorites, boasting a superior league standing, better recent form, and a more effective away record compared to Cremonese's struggles at home. Cremonese's low goal output at home and defensive vulnerabilities make it difficult for them to compete against a mid-table side like Bologna.
Key Factors
- ●Bologna's strong away performance (1.6 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game).
- ●Cremonese's poor home record (2 wins in 14, 0.9 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game).
- ●Significant difference in league positions (Bologna 9th, Cremonese 17th).
- ●Cremonese's tendency for low-scoring games and failure to score at home.
Upset Potential
Low. While Cremonese is fighting relegation, their current form and home statistics do not suggest they are likely to cause an upset against a solid Bologna side. An inspired performance or a moment of individual brilliance would be required.
Goal Markets
Over/Under 2.5
Under 2.5 Goals
BTTS
No
Total Goals
2-3 Goals
Cremonese averages only 0.9 goals per home game and has failed to score in 42.8% of their home matches. Bologna's away defense is solid, conceding 1.2 goals per game. While Bologna scores 1.6 goals away, the overall trend for both teams points to lower-scoring affairs. Cremonese's 'goals for under_over 2.5' shows 28 under and only 2 over, indicating they are rarely involved in high-scoring games. The combined average expected goals for this match are around 2.46, leaning towards Under 2.5. Given Cremonese's struggle to score at home, BTTS 'No' is also a strong possibility.
Value Bets
Bologna's superior league position, stronger recent form (3 wins in last 5 vs Cremonese's 1 win in last 5), and excellent away record (7 wins in 15 away games) suggest a higher probability of victory than the implied 50% from the odds. Our model estimates their win probability closer to 58%, offering a significant edge.
Statistical Breakdown
Analysis
Cremonese has a home win rate of 14.28% (2 wins in 14 games), while Bologna has an away win rate of 46.67% (7 wins in 15 games). Cremonese averages 0.86 goals for and 1.5 goals against at home. Bologna averages 1.6 goals for and 1.2 goals against away. Cremonese has failed to score in 42.8% of their home matches, whereas Bologna has scored in 86.7% of their away matches. Both teams show a tendency for games with under 2.5 goals, with Cremonese having 28 out of 30 total games under 2.5 goals for them, and Bologna having 26 out of 30 total games under 2.5 goals for them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Form Guide
Betting Insight
Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is strongly in favor of Bologna, as indicated by the odds, which position them as clear favorites.
Sharp Money
No specific data on sharp money movements was provided.
Line Movement
No specific data on line movement was provided.
Risk Assessment
Risk Score
- !Cremonese's desperation for points as they battle relegation could lead to an unexpectedly resilient performance.
- !Bologna's form, while generally good, has shown occasional losses ('LWLWW'), indicating they are not invincible.
- !The absence of head-to-head and injury data introduces an element of uncertainty.
Model Confidence
85%
Data quality: Good, comprehensive team statistics and league standings were provided, allowing for a robust statistical analysis.
- - Absence of head-to-head match history.
- - Lack of specific injury reports for both teams.
- - No recent news or tactical insights beyond statistical data.
This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.