Soccer · Ligue 1Sun, Apr 5, 2026
AngersAngers
VS
LyonLyon

Stade Raymond-Kopa

AI Prediction

Lyon

Angers 1 - 2 Lyon

Confidence70%

Match Summary

Lyon enters this match as the statistically superior team, sitting 4th in the league compared to Angers' 12th position. However, Lyon's recent form has been concerning, with a string of poor results. Angers, while struggling overall, has shown some resilience at home. The match is expected to be a low-scoring affair.

Key Factors

  • Lyon's overall statistical superiority (goals scored, conceded, goal difference).
  • Lyon's recent dip in form (LDDLL).
  • Angers' relatively solid home record despite their league standing.
  • The absence of O. Mangala for Lyon due to injury.
  • Both teams' strong tendency towards Under 2.5 goals.

Upset Potential

Moderate. While Lyon is the clear favorite on paper, their recent form combined with Angers' home advantage and Lyon's key injury creates a scenario where an upset or a draw is more plausible than usual for a fixture between teams of such differing league positions.

Goal Markets

Over/Under 2.5

Under 2.5 Goals

BTTS

No

Total Goals

2-3 goals

Both Angers and Lyon have a strong statistical tendency for low-scoring matches. Angers has gone under 2.5 goals in 26 of 27 total matches (for) and 24 of 27 (against), while Lyon has done so in 22 of 27 (for) and 21 of 27 (against). This makes 'Under 2.5 Goals' the most likely outcome. For Both Teams To Score (BTTS), Lyon has a high scoring rate (85% of games) but Angers has failed to score in 10 of 27 matches (37%). Given Lyon's decent defensive record (13 clean sheets total, 6 away) and Angers' lower scoring output, it's more probable that at least one team will fail to score, leading to a 'No' for BTTS.

Value Bets

Lyon to WinMatch Result
+0.1% edge
Odds: 1.76Implied: 57%Model: 62%

Lyon's implied probability from the odds is 56.82%. Our model, considering their superior league position, goal difference, and overall season performance, estimates their win probability at 62%. This offers a positive edge of 5.18%, indicating value in backing Lyon for the win, despite their recent inconsistent form.

Under 2.5 GoalsTotal Goals
+% edge
Odds: Implied: %Model: 75%

Both teams show a strong tendency towards low-scoring games. Angers has seen Under 2.5 goals in 26 of 27 matches (for) and 24 of 27 matches (against). Lyon has seen Under 2.5 goals in 22 of 27 matches (for) and 21 of 27 matches (against). The combined average goals per game for Angers is 2.3, and for Lyon is 2.6. This statistical trend makes Under 2.5 goals a highly probable outcome, even without specific odds provided.

Statistical Breakdown

Ang_home_win_rate

46.15% (6 wins in 13 home games)

Lyon_away_win_rate

35.71% (5 wins in 14 away games)

Lyon_clean_sheet_pct

48.15% (13/27 games)

Ang_home_avg_goals_for

1.2 goals per game

Ang_failed_to_score_pct

37.04% (10/27 games)

Lyon_away_avg_goals_for

1.4 goals per game

Lyon_failed_to_score_pct

14.81% (4/27 games)

Ang_total_under25_for_pct

96.3% (26/27 games)

Ang_home_avg_goals_against

1.2 goals per game

Lyon_total_under25_for_pct

81.5% (22/27 games)

Lyon_away_avg_goals_against

1.4 goals per game

Ang_total_under25_against_pct

88.9% (24/27 games)

Lyon_total_under25_against_pct

77.8% (21/27 games)

Frequently Asked Questions

Form Guide

Angers
MGAMES
Lyon
MGAMES

Betting Insight

Market Sentiment

No specific betting sentiment data provided, but the odds suggest the market heavily favors Lyon.

Sharp Money

No sharp money data provided.

Line Movement

No line movement data provided.

Risk Assessment

6

Risk Score

Medium
  • !Lyon's recent poor form (LDDLL) suggests potential underlying issues or a dip in performance.
  • !Angers' decent home record (6 wins in 13 games) could make them a tougher opponent than their league position suggests.
  • !The absence of key midfielder O. Mangala for Lyon could disrupt their tactical plans and midfield dominance.

Model Confidence

75%

Data quality: Good. Comprehensive team statistics, league standings, and injury information were provided, allowing for a detailed analysis.

  • - No head-to-head statistics were provided, which could offer valuable historical context.
  • - No specific player form or tactical details beyond general formations were available.
  • - No recent news or manager comments were available to gauge team morale or specific match preparations.

This prediction is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice.